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Trendspotting — Where 97.9% Fail

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We all want that ability to be able to see the next big trend before it happens — what people will be wanting, doing, needing, going to, and buying NEXT. We want to be there ready and waiting for those customers.

Some folks can see that next trend and hit it fairly often. No one can do it 100%. No one can get any customer base to behave 100% predictably.

Good morning, Class.
Find the next trend. Oh yes, 97.9% of you wll fail this test.

People Data Isn’t on Paper

Folks might lead you to believe that spotting trends is a mysterious talent. Bunk. It’s not. Trendspotting is not about magic or guesswork. It’s about work, preparation and a variety of data. In the calculation of a trend, guesswork, hunches, intuition is probably less than 5%.

Want to see the next trend? Study people and their patterns. Study the folks who follow your passion. Think of that as Trendspotting Infrastructure. Your field of passion is the raw data. Observing folks and talking to them is data collection. Identifying patterns and sorting them is warehousing.

Have a respect for numbers, specifically those that analyze your customers. But don’t fall in love with numbers. Numbers without live voices are like beautiful graphs without spreadsheets behind them. People don’t live in static, little groups on paper. Numbers aren’t enough.

This is the place where 97.9% fail. They think that 100 numbers are smarter than 10 persons’ voices. In predicting behavior, people are more than numbers — not focus groups — people, individuals, single, multi-dimensional, feelingful persons who have thoughts.

So Where Are We Now

People –Patterns –Ideas –People –Patterns –Better Ideas –People Patterns –Even Better Ideas

All you did was pay attention, and suddenly someone says you can spot a trend.

–ME “Liz” Strauss
(The Hows of People Data is Next)

Related articles
Trendspotting: How to Crawl into People’s Heads
Find My . . . um . . . Passion — What?!!

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Comments

  1. With searches yielding too many irrelevant search results, adding specific keywords to search requests can greatly narrow-down search results; while yielding content on growing trends i.e., an emerging social, economic, technological zeitgeist.

    Such search strategies use inference by noting the context of how specific keywords are applied. For example, if an author of content subconsciously mentions words like ‘a growing trend toward’, or even the word ‘lately’ trend-spotters can infer emerging trends.

    Since emerging trends per-se receive very little (yet growing) mentions within media content; the use of specific keywords naturally narrows-down the number of search results; yet greatly increases the percentage of search-results on growing trends.

    Here is a sample search using the occurrence of words ‘become and lately.’

    http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=&as_qdr=m3&q=%22become+*+lately%22+%22June+*+2006%22+-he+-she+-me&as_qdr=m3&btnG=Search

    — The asterisk character “*” is a wild-card character that indicates two words NEAR each other “lately * noticed.” “June * 2006” applies an asterisk to indicate specific dates, and infers up-to-date content; yet some Internet sites contain older content. Many trade and professional publications post-date content e.g., “July, 2006″, August, 2006”

    — The words he, she, me are excluded. After all, content which can signal emerging trends usually doesn’t contain ‘he, she, me.’ Certain pronouns usually indicate personal accounts of individuals; rather than the “collective conscious” shaping emerging trends.

    The term ‘lately’ can be applied in different ways.

    –(search term(s)) lately.

    — lately (search term(s))

    — lately * (search term(s)).

    — (search term(s)) * lately.

    Additional keywords which can infer emerging trends.

    –“Growing trend toward”

    — “People are becoming” or “people have become.”

    — A sharp increase.

    — “becoming more and more.”

    –“a growing number.”

    –“a growing niche.”

    — growing interest.

    Different combinations of keywords also yield content of interest to trend-spotters.

    Search-results are very subjective. After all, inference requires “human input” to “separate the wheat from the chaff” as search engines cannot always yield relevant trend information. Yet trend-spotting through inference may even act “as a practice of sorts” for spotting new trends through intuition i.e., to become increasingly observant; even before any relevant content is published!

    Quite often, the feedback on potential new trends yields dynamic discussions which are astounding to read.

    — One example of an “emerging trend” spotted through both inference and intuition.

    The March 6, 2006 issue of Creative Review; article ‘Writing Returns’ discusses the growing trend towards greater use of text in advertising content; popular back in the 1960s and 1970s.

    The goals in advertising are to interrupt and engage general, specialized, semi-specialized, semi-general audiences. With advertising saturated with fancy graphics effects, it makes sense to balance text with graphics; in order to reach audiences who may also relate to informational content.

    Reply

  2. Thanks Marc,
    For such an in-depth and informative comment. I can’t to delve into all of this great information. There’s so much there. It’s exciting stuff. I’ve been following the detaht of interruption advertising and the need to engaging a specialized audience with content that they have want to see and have in essence given permission to take part in.

    I believe that advertisers and marketers need to know their customer intimately before they can begin think about engaging them with products in a world as cluttered and crowded as the world has become.

    Reply

  3. Thank-you for responding to my post on search methodologies.

    The examples I gave for specific keywords are all important for spotting “emerging trends” worth monitoring. It can be a time consuming process.

    I’m interested in establishing a business out of these search methodologies; as I’ve developed and modified many other keyword sets. What business models best apply? Consulting, Internet-sites that generate revenue e.g., Google AdSense on a pay-per-click basis?

    Reply

  4. Hi Marc,
    I think you have a great idea for developing a niche business from these methodologies. Google and Yahoo have always been venues for determining our intentions. We type in movie theaters and we’re telegraphing our intentions to do find a movie theater and the probability that we’ll be talking in a movie soon.

    Certainly marketing folks would be interested in what you are doing as would folks who are buying Adsense words. I would expect that the more that you can hone what you’re doing the more that you can pinpoint your niche.

    Why can’t you use the same method to find the business that are geared to future business?

    Reply

  5. I come from a Librarian or (Cybrarian) background, and not a business background.
    Finding and posting information on businesses that are geared to future businesses are obviously different from applying trend information from business perspectives i.e., developing, and marketing products and services.

    Reply

  6. Well, yes and no, to some degree your biggest problem will be one, I think of credentials and credibility. Most of business in understanding how things work and how people think. It seems to me if you could figure out what you did, you have enough of that.

    Reply

  7. I currently apply trend-spotting as a tool; to discern up-and-coming yet still undervalued items for resale on Ebay.

    I’m currently sharing my trend-spotting strategies with content providers who monitor emerging trends in;

    * Small-businesses.

    * Green-business initiatives as well other environmental issues.

    * Computers i.e., Interent, technologies, hardware, software, and security.

    * Media-related issues.

    My trend-spotting tools, and experience are probably best applied towards contributing content for publication; that is I would be paid for contributions. I’ve long contributed content for free.

    Since the Internet has provided many people with access to information; how would a wider- use of trend-spotting tools e.g., like searching through inference further enhance information access and value?

    Reply

  8. Well Marc,
    First of all, you know how to do it. That’s value. Most folks don’t and don’t like to. That’s more value.

    Second, by having done it, you’ve picked up intuitive detail about how to do it. That’s still more value. I’m betting you know more about it than you give yourself credit for.

    We often discount what comes naturally as not of value, because we think that everyone can do it. That’s not true.

    A person with a gracious personality is an asset to any business situation and of immense value. You can’t buy that and some can’t even learn it. But often the person who has it doesn’t think it’s of any value whatsoever. 🙂

    Reply

  9. Inference searching can ironically locate blogs whose interests may be receptive to…….trend spotting though inference.

    The MSN search engine allows users to sort search-results by the “most popular” sites i.e., sites that receive the heaviest traffic:”

    * Click: http://www.msn.com

    * See EXAMPLES for search terms to apply:

    * Click: ‘+ search builder’

    * Click: ‘+ results ranking’

    *Click on slider listing ‘least popular/most popular’ and raise slider to ‘most popular’

    EXAMPLES: Note the term ‘blog’ as singular works best. If the term ‘blogs’ as plural are applied, search-results can become very cumbersome.

    * ‘Blog and Emerging trends’:
    http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?q=blog+%22emerging+trends%22+%7Bpopl%3D100%7D&FORM=QBRE

    * Blog AND ‘latest trends’ AND business:
    http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?q=blog+%22latest+trends%22+business+%7Bpopl%3D100%7D&FORM=QBRE

    * Blog AND ‘trends in’:
    http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?q=blog+%22trends+in%22++%7Bpopl%3D100%7D&FORM=QBRE

    * Blog AND ‘spotting trends’ (lists this blog):
    http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?q=blog+%22spotting+trends%22++%7Bpopl%3D100%7D&FORM=QBRE

    * (Including the current month and year yields the latest developments this blog alos listed) ‘July 2006 AND blog AND ‘spotting trends’:
    http://search.msn.com/results.aspx?q=%22july+2006%22+blog+%22spotting+trends%22++%7Bpopl%3D100%7D&srch_type=0&FORM=QBRE

    Reply

  10. Wow Marc,
    That’s a whole search tecnique I had no clue about. I’ve not been a fan of MSN because their algorithm tends to favor tech listings. So I didn’t know they had added this feature. I’m going to have to check this out.

    Thanks for showing us how to do this.

    Reply

  12. Gosh Marc,
    You questioned what you have to offer. Look back at this comment stream. You’re resource I envy. You have so many things at your fingertips. This is like your own personal niche.

    Reply

  13. I’m interested in developing a website that is a combination of a blog and a search-engine; as collective feedback and discussions are necessary to evaluate the importance of specific trends to monitor.

    The content will be organized in categories as well as content that is searchable by keyword phrases.

    What are the values of Internet affiliate programs (pay-per-click revenue payments) e.g., GOOGLE ADSENSE regarding the type of blog I’m considering?

    Other affiliate programs are LINKSHARE, COMMISSION JUNCTION.

    Thank-you
    Marc Rossi
    California (Central-Coast)

    Reply

  15. Hello,

    WHOA: I’m still digesting all of the ‘Problogger.net’ and ‘Publishing2.com’ content.

    Any recommendations for specific ‘blog-revenue’ programs?

    thank-you

    Reply

  16. Hi Marc,
    I’m not sure what you mean by “blog-revenue” programs. Many folks are searching for THE model to make money from their blogs. Advertising is one. Using a blog as a springboard for a consultancy is another.

    Reply

  17. ‘Blog-revenue programs’ another term for ‘income streams for bloggers.’

    What specific blog-plans (for lack of a better term) are recommended for people new to blogging?

    Thank-you

    Reply

  18. Ah, Marc, you answer that one, beyond what you’ve already found and you’re going to get a tremendous following.

    There is no Web 2.0 model yet for bloggers to make money. If you didn’t find it on problogger, you won’t find it anywhere.

    Reply

  19. Laugh! What was I thinking? The key strength of the Internet is more of WHAT and HOW content is valued, and less (yet still important) as to WHO published content.

    Most listings of services on Problogger have the whole gambit of users; mostly from amateurs to intermediate users. A few users are ‘gurus’ or course.

    later,
    Marc

    Reply

  20. Hey Marc,
    You actually have a product/service to sell, which puts you ahead of the rest of the pack. I think you’ll find a way to make something of that. Come around tonight at comments night and lets talk about it.

    Reply

  21. Hello,

    Thank-you for inviting me to the Tuesday night forums. I will ask to reschedule my Tuesday meetings in order to participate in the discussion forums.

    I’m inviting additional people to post in this discussion thread.

    I’ve posted details on my search-strategies to a small business forum, and a computer, Internet technolgogy forum e.g., responding to computer security concerns.

    I still have not located a ‘green-business’ and environmental-related issues forum where I could fit my search-method discussion.

    Anybody see the ’60 Minutes’ report ‘Working 24/7’ which was rebroadcast on Sunday July, 23rd?

    I’m surprised I have not located active discussions on this story. ‘Information overload’ came to mind on viewing ‘Working 24/7’ report. Naturally, I wanted to contribute my input; as how we locate, find, and filter information may ‘ease’ information overload.

    Reply

  23. Hello,

    According to my schedule, I’m unable to participate in the Tuesday Evening forums at this time. I’m inviting additional posters to this blog-thread.

    Lately, I’ve been noting the relevancy-rankings in search-results; it would be most helpful if the first-sets of search-results of all specified terms are within the same paragraph, block-of text, etc; instead of being scattered all over the website.

    Here is an example of a search-engine that offers greater control of search-results through proximity searching:

    http://www.urban.org/search/index.c…FTOKEN=84389249

    On proximity searches.
    http://www.urban.org/search/index.c…89249#proximity

    Thank-you
    Marc Rossi

    Reply

  25. Actually, many people would want search-engine results; where relevancy of content would be the proximity of two or more search-query terms i.e., The most relevent content would be the first set of search-results where search-query terms are closest together. e.g., proximity searches.

    Has anybody working within the search-engine industries posted to this blog? Many of us would appreciate the importance of proximity-search options on GOOGLE’s radar screens.

    Later,
    Marc

    Reply

  26. Hi know a few folks working at Google, but I’m not sure that they can talk about how the algorithm works in that kind of detail. You might try poking around in some of the SEO blogs, but they can be tough on people who don’t talk their talk. 🙂

    Reply

  27. Hi,

    Any consideration for conveying my suggestions to the people from GOOGLE?

    Trend-Spotting through ‘semantic inference’ would take ‘quantum leaps’; where initial search-results lists sites that keep search-queries in ‘semantic context.’

    What topics where covered at the Tuesday night forum?

    later,
    Marc

    Reply

  28. Hi Marc,
    Google is stuck in their keyword theory.

    In answer to your second question, I’m afraid we were quite silly. I just posted the synopsis of last night’s comment night, while you were writing this comment. 🙂

    Reply

  29. Hello,

    I contacted the webmaster at the ‘Urban Institute’ in regards thier search-engine’s options for proximity searching. I hope they can develop/adapt their search-engine to be used as a template for GOOGLE, MSN, Yahoo, etc.

    I located the synopsis of the Tuesday Night Forum. I hope I can schedule time soon on the forum!

    later,
    Marc

    Reply

  30. Marc,
    It’s fun to watch where you’re taking this. I think you’ve got something good going on. Keep taking it where you find leads. You’re making something happen.

    Reply

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